What was the last Arab country to have a popular revolt followed by a transition to a secular constitutional democracy, as most Westerners are hoping for? Hmm. Well, there really aren’t any. This current business in Egypt is reminiscent of the Iranian Revolution in 1979, except that I have no idea how sympathetic the young, unemployed Egyptians instigating the current movement are to a theocracy. Perhaps the Egyptian revolt of 1952 that everyone on the news networks has apparently forgotten is instructive. It deposed the monarchy, thwarted the theocrats, and led to Western-style liberalizations. Obviously, that liberalization process remains “incomplete.”
The concern in my view is that any system of governance seems better than autocracy during a time of revolt, especially when it’s delivered by a trusted and authoritative source. Would-be saviors and champions of liberalizing reform can easily become eventual dictators. That’s what happened once already. Predicting the outcome of popular revolts is like predicting the superbowl winner in 2054. It could be the New Amsterdam Seamen, for all we know.
We shall see. What the hell happened to Tunisia, by the way? Did it sink into the ocean?
